But a 90 percent chance is pretty darned high. Could it just be hot air from Smith?

It’s certainly a possibility. After all, the city and surrounding jurisdictions can’t backpedal fast enough; losing all the money that the track brings in (tax revenue and tourism dollars, primarily) would be a huge blow. They’re pinned in a corner.

But the Observer also points out several reasons why it would make sense: Lowe’s is one of the older tracks on the circuit, though it’s been upgraded numerous times over the years. A new track would surely mean more luxury boxes, which is the quickest way to profit for any professional sports owner.

Moreover, some other municipality will be happy to step in and gobble up the revenue stream of a track with three guaranteed Nextel Cup dates (two points races and the All-Star event).

Neither side comes out looking great on this. Smith looks like a kid who wants to take his ball home in a huff. The city looks weak-kneed when facing the prospect of the move (though that may well be the financial reality of the situation).

If Smith really wants to move, it surely won’t be an overnight process. Getting to the ceremonial dirt-shoveling would be a years-long exercise.

Until Smith says for certain that he’s moving – no percentages – it’s hard to tell which way this will go.

For the longest time, NASCAR refused to acknowledge the Chase as being a playoff — though that’s exactly what it is.

But here’s the difference between NASCAR’s version and those in the baseball, basketball and hockey: One-sided series in those sports don’t drag on. They’re over in four (occasionally three) games. You know, break out the brooms.

We’re halfway through the Chase, and the only thing that’s been eliminated is the drama. The only potential drama would be for Bowyer to pull off the unthinkable and win a title; but that’s a huge mountain for him to climb. He’s going up against previous champions who can win at any track; Bowyer has yet to show he’s a threat at any of the mid-length tracks or superspeedways.

Bowyer’s a talented driver, certainly, and I don’t mean to dismiss his season — there’s no bigger surprise on the circuit this year. Still, his odds are very difficult to overtake both Hendrick drivers.

But back to the Chase. For the first few years, we were spoiled by how tight the finishes were; perhaps it was only a matter of time before we got a dog of a Chase.

And make no mistake, this is a dog. In 2006, there were three drivers within 100 points of the leader — entering the final race at Homestead. In 2005, again before Homestead, three were within 100 points of the leader. In 2005, the high water mark, five drivers were within 100 points at Homestead.

In the next four races, it’s possible the current number of three could increase — unlikely, but possible.

But this is also possible: By the time the series gets to Homestead, Gordon may well have clinched the championship. Or he could be so far ahead that Johnson has just a mathematical chance at a second title.

Such a scenario would be a huge blow to the Chase format; why, then, did we even bother with the Chase? If we were still going by the old format of total points, Homestead would be a glorified parade lap for Gordon. In this situation, it will be just that, and all the bells and whistles will just be eye candy.

I hate to be one of those people that point out flaws without a better idea. So this will be something I’ll be thinking about over the next few weeks in the event that this scenario comes to fruition.

Your input is welcome as well. Has the Chase increased your excitement about the end of the NASCAR season, or do you find it to be unnecessary?

(Photo by Chuck Burton/Associated Press)

At best, Childress has a tenuous chance to win a championship. But starting in the low-20s in no way to strengthen that grip, particularly not when Jimmie Johnson qualified second and Jeff Gordon was fourth.

The most unusual thing about it is that Lowe’s isn’t much of a variable, at least among the Chase tracks, as we’ve said before.

You’ll get a surprise on the pole now and again — Scott Riggs last year for one, certainly more than Ryan Newman last night — but generally, the better teams qualify well and run up front.

With all of that said, it won’t be surprising to see Harvick, Bowyer or Burton crack into the top 15; perhaps all three of them will. But they’re going to have spend a lot of energy to do so (Lowe’s seems to be pretty neutral as far as passing goes, neither especially difficult or especially easy).

Moreover, while they’re making their move into 20th, Johnson could be battling for the lead. Assuming he takes the lead at some point, that’ll be five more points the Childress teams have to make up.
Even in the congested atmosphere of the Chase, five points isn’t very much. But right now, the Childress cars need all the help they can get.

• GOING TO LOWE’S this weekend or Martinsville next weekend? Don’t forget to squeeze in a quick visit to the doctor.

The Washington Times is reporting on a brouhaha between a pair of House members. Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), the chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, has insisted that staffers traveling to races at Talladega and Lowe’s be immunized before going.

The staffers are going to help identify risks for high-profile events with a mass of people, like NASCAR races.

As you can imagine, this is not sitting well with Rep. Robin Hayes, a North Carolina Republican whose district includes Concord, where Lowe’s resides. Hayes fired off a letter to Thompson to ask why all of this was necessary.

Thompson has shot back that it’s not meant to be an affront to NASCAR races specifically; he just wants Congressional staff to be safe.

That’s a nice thought, but seems a little short-sighted. If this was some trip where some sort of an infection was likely, of course you mandate the immunizations.

But it’s a NASCAR race. That doesn’t exactly scream high-risk.

That said, this is one more issue that doesn’t need to turn political. It’s not a political issue. It’s just a matter of Thompson not using his head. That simple.

(Photo by Glenn Smith/Associated Press)

But I tell that story not just to reminisce, but because of what was noteworthy about the 2004 Coke 600: Nothing.

The race was a dog. Jimmie Johnson was the polesitter and dominated the early part of the race, which featured long green flag runs. (The summary over at NASCAR.com shows there wasn’t even a caution until 160 laps into the event followed by unabated runs of 70 and 100 laps.)

Of course we don’t want to see getting injured, but would a harmless spin have been too much to ask?

We bailed out just before the red flag, because we had a long drive back to Greensboro and our hotel. Johnson went on to win; that’s his win at this race pictured at right.

I bring up this whole premise because I can see Saturday night’s race being much the same. As we mentioned the other day, this is a track where Hendrick, and Johnson in particular, has been dominant. So we can at least expect them to qualify well, barring some unforeseen circumstance.

The legitimate Chase contenders have been narrowed significantly. There may be some good racing among the guys who don’t really want to finish last in the Chase.

There could be some good racing among the guys who want to finish 13th and be the best non-Chaser.

But that really just feels like me trying to convince myself it’ll be a good race.

We’re nearing the mid-point of the Chase. Nothing’s really been decided yet and it’s really not that close to being decided. Who can argue that, in the grand scheme, a Mets-Phillies game in early July would be more exciting than a Mets-Phillies game in late September?

Lowe’s isn’t always the most exciting track to watch a race at, unlike say last week at Talladega or next week at Martinsville.

Maybe because there’s a far larger unknown element at those tracks. Lowe’s feels more predictable. Johnson had a long streak of wins there; Kasey Kahne swept the points races there last year on the way to his series best six wins.

It’s exciting for the drivers and crews, who get a rare home game. But that doesn’t translate as well for us watching at home.

Hopefully they prove me wrong.

(Photo by Sherryl Creekmore/NASCAR)

From a racing standpoint, the deal may change some sponsorships here and there, but likely won’t result in any major shift.

Companies use sponsorships across multiple platforms in racing. Some companies have official sponsorships with teams and with NASCAR, like Home Depot,

Occasionally, one company has sponsorships across different teams; think of the Wrigley’s deal that included the Ganassi teams as well as Kasey Kahne.

And companies merging or being bought out is hardly a new thing. The issues with Jeff Burton’s primary sponsorship all resulted because Cingular was bought out by AT&T.

The Miller-Coors deal is different in a few respects. Few industries put as much money into sports sponsorship as the mega-breweries. Darn near any arena or stadium you go to has some advertising by Bud, Miller or Coors – perhaps a combination or even all three – from minor-league stadiums to 2.5-mile NASCAR tracks.

And within racing – anecdotally, at least – about the only companies that would outspend the mega-breweries would be the auto manufacturers themselves (for obvious reasons).

So long as Budweiser is affiliated with the sport, anything that happens to it is news. Since the merger indirectly affects them, it qualifies as news.

But it’s hard to see any sort of long-lasting impact from it, unless there becomes a major sponsorship issue.

—I SKIPPED OUT YESTERDAY when an assignment ran a bit longer than I expected. I got home, typed up a story and by then, it was time for me to get ready for a small birthday dinner for some friends.

How time flies…

The assignment was up on Wisconsin Ave. NW in D.C., just over the Maryland line. I accidentally drove a few blocks past the restaurant and found myself searching for a place to park (it is D.C., after all).

I pulled off Wisconsin and found a place to park in front of some stores. There was an open spot and I took it. And then I looked around.

Tiffany & Co. Louis Vuitton. Gucci. Bulgari.

Ummm… my late-model Explorer felt a little out of place. OK, more than a little.

I did call my wife and asked her if I could pick her up anything from Louis Vuitton, and she just laughed.