It certainly may. We’ve talked about Hendrick’s dominance at the track; only twice in the past nine races has Hendrick not gone to victory lane. Think about that for a minute: You’re more likely to win if you bet on Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson as compared to the field – 41 other entrants.

The ‘wildcard’ factor was easier to dismiss at Talladega, so everyone was so hesitant about running the COT there. That factor will be greatly lessened at Martinsville, since the COT has run at short tracks all season.

But it can’t be completely dismissed.

The racing is tight, especially in those two hairpin turns. With two lanes available, drivers on the outside place a lot of trust in the drivers on the inside not to get loose. Sometimes it happens, and two or three cars spin harmlessly toward the wall; the danger is often not in smacking the wall, but watching helplessly as a string of cars go by as you search for a spot to fall into.

The other danger area is entering those two hairpin turns. Driver A gets aggressive goes much harder into the corner than he should and punts the car in front of him. Again, it may not hit the wall, but within a few seconds you could drop 20 spots.

Let’s say either of these scenarios happens to Johnson or Gordon. They get punted, spin around but stay off the wall; suddenly, they’re back in 38th.

Initially, it won’t be much of a concern. They’ll be able to pass the back-markers with little difficulty; moreover, those drivers are more apt to let Johnson or Gordon by, knowing what the stakes are for them.

The challenge comes when you hit the low-20s. That’s when they’re more likely to encounter a fellow Chaser, who’s less likely to give a position, no matter how far behind they are. They’ll also have to hope they won’t get caught behind slower (perhaps lapped) cars that hold them up, even on the bottom.

So unlike Talladega, hanging around in the back won’t be an option.

They’re better served to be out front, which is where they’ll likely qualify. The front has its dangers as well, but it’s a lot better than the alternative.