But a 90 percent chance is pretty darned high. Could it just be hot air from Smith?

It’s certainly a possibility. After all, the city and surrounding jurisdictions can’t backpedal fast enough; losing all the money that the track brings in (tax revenue and tourism dollars, primarily) would be a huge blow. They’re pinned in a corner.

But the Observer also points out several reasons why it would make sense: Lowe’s is one of the older tracks on the circuit, though it’s been upgraded numerous times over the years. A new track would surely mean more luxury boxes, which is the quickest way to profit for any professional sports owner.

Moreover, some other municipality will be happy to step in and gobble up the revenue stream of a track with three guaranteed Nextel Cup dates (two points races and the All-Star event).

Neither side comes out looking great on this. Smith looks like a kid who wants to take his ball home in a huff. The city looks weak-kneed when facing the prospect of the move (though that may well be the financial reality of the situation).

If Smith really wants to move, it surely won’t be an overnight process. Getting to the ceremonial dirt-shoveling would be a years-long exercise.

Until Smith says for certain that he’s moving – no percentages – it’s hard to tell which way this will go.