We obviously don’t know what will happen to the Redskins from here on out; their next test – and it is a formidable one – comes on Sunday when they host New Orleans.

And if you need racing-only specifics, we’ll point to Jimmie Johnson’s first championship two seasons ago. He came out of New Hampshire with a 39th-place finish and had a lot of ground to make up.

Even in the following weeks, his results were nothing spectacular: 13th, 14th and 24th in the next three races. But then Johnson got hot, finishing second in four of the next five races. That fifth race was a win.

That’s an extreme example. Who among the current field could roll off such a hot streak? Johnson, certainly. Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, certainly. Tony Stewart, maybe if he suddenly finds himself. Jeff Gordon, ditto. Dale Earnhardt Jr., possibly, but would have to show a dramatic improvement than what he’s shown this season.

So if we go on what we know from the first 26 races, there are no more than six drivers – and six at the very most – that could rally back from a miserable first race at Loudon.

That’s not likely to happen, of course, barring some unforeseen wreck or equipment failure. And wrecks at Loudon don’t have to be terribly damaging; a mere spin can be easily overcome, especially if it happens early. Keeping the car off the wall during a spin isn’t an impossible task either, not like it would be at places of much higher speeds.

Assuming the race goes as planned (ha), most of the Chase drivers can be expected to come home with finishes if sixth through 15th. A few will distinguish themselves in the top five, a few others may put themselves behind with the previously-mentioned disaster scenario. It’s the Bell curve, applied to racing.

But in the larger picture, it won’t necessarily mean a whole lot. For those that have bad finishes, it merely reduces the margin of error for the season’s final nine races. But as Johnson showed, it’s not impossible to overcome, particularly for this year’s elite teams.

“We didn’t plan on winning all 16,” Redskins running back Clinton Portis said on Wednesday.

Cup teams will be taking the same tact: No one driver’s going to win all 10 races and no one driver is going to emerge unscathed in all 10 races. Maybe their mulligan will come sooner rather than later.